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Oct 9
China’s Catch-22

Many people say that, China is North Korea’s closest friend. But interestingly enough, people have never said that North Korea is China’s closest friend.

The announcement by North Korea that it had conducted an underground nuclear test puts China in a Catch-22 position now.

A nuclear North Korea would dramatically alter the strategic balance of power in the Pacific region. If North Korea goes nuclear, then Japan will feel it has no choice but to acquire its own atomic arsenal. That would destroy the balance of power in northeast Asia that has kept the peace since the end of the World War II.

On the other hand, though China provides energy and food supplies to North Korea, it will be very reluctant for China to impose sanctions. China worries about that cutting off aid to North Korea could destabilize this neighbor. The collapse of North Korea could lead to a flood of refugees into China.

This situation is truly tricky for China.

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2 Comments/Trackbacks




One big issue is that North Korea has lost the ability to reform. So it runs far away in another way.

But as long as China still consider it a socialism country, Chinese leader will continue to support it. That's a typical "face issue".

The Nuclear Test done by North Korea today could aid in bringing China and Japan closer as both are very concerned and in the immediate vicinity of Korea. Japan is concerned because of security of Japan and China is concerned about the stability of the DPRK government. China has long been key in dealing with North Korea and they have been seen as generally supportive of the DPRK and Kim Jung Il. Kim's moving forward with the test in the face of Beijing's strong advice not to do it could significantly change the relationship.

• Since coming to North Korea's aid in the 1950s, China has always been the "big brother" to the DPRK.

• Their governing principles were similar in the beginning, but have diverged since China's opening to the rest of the world and even more so in the past 15 years since China's economy has really exploded. This economic opening of China has significantly changed the lives of its citizens while there is still draconian control in the DPRK.

• While China may like to see a more open DPRK, they are more concerned with maintaining stability of the DPRK regime. If the government were to fall it would probably mean massive moves of people from North Korea into China's northeast region. Such mass migration would cause significant challenges for China, especially in a region where unemployment rates remain higher than many other parts of the country.

• Japan has not been allowed to maintain a normal military nor possess nuclear weapons since the end of WWII. The US provides security for Japan. Of course, Japan has developed some security forces and there has, in recent years, been more and more pressure from the US for Japan to take responsibility for its own security. Given this and with the nuclear threat from such a near neighbor who is very unstable, Japan could begin to consider re-arming. Should this happen, most of Asia and especially China, will become very concerned because of Japan's past aggressive military history.

• China has generally taken a low profile on international issues using behind the scenes influences instead of being the lead. The issue of North Korea may move China more into the forefront on international issues as currently it is the only country with any real influence in the DPRK. Now with Kim going against Beijing's advice, it threatens their influential position.

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« Scientists Debate on the Size of the Blast in North Korea | Main | China and the Six-Party Talks »

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